U.S.-Iran Ceasefire on 'Life Support' as Strait of Hormuz Deadlock Deepens
Primary region Middle East
Tags Diplomacy · Security · Energy
Regions US · Middle East
Five weeks after a tenuous ceasefire took effect, the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked with no progress toward a lasting peace agreement. President Trump dismissed Iran's latest peace proposal as 'garbage,' while Iran demands war reparations, lifting of U.S. sanctions, recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to Israel's operations in Lebanon. Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes, pushing Brent crude above $107 a barrel. The U.S. Navy enforces a blockade of Iranian ports, having redirected 65 commercial vessels and disabled several Iranian tankers. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers the war has cost at least $29 billion. Trump said the ceasefire is on 'massive life support' and has considered restarting military operations.
Strategic interpretation
The deadlock reflects a fundamental mismatch: the U.S. demands Iran abandon its nuclear program and open the Strait, while Iran demands reparations and sanctions removal as non-negotiable minimums. Iran's strategy of keeping the Strait closed while avoiding full-scale resumption of hostilities allows it to inflict economic pain without triggering military escalation. The longer the deadlock persists, the greater the domestic pressure on Trump ahead of midterm elections, potentially forcing him toward either a risky military escalation or a compromise that could be framed as weakness.