Pew Research: Trump approval rating slips to 37-40% as confidence declines across key issues
Primary region US
Tags Elections · Policy
Regions US
A Pew Research Center survey conducted April 20-26, 2026 among 5,103 US adults found Trump's approval rating has declined to the 37-40% range, down from 47% at his second inauguration. Confidence in Trump's ability to handle immigration policy dropped to 41% (down from 46% in August 2025 and 53% after his 2024 reelection). Confidence in Trump's use of military force wisely dropped to 38% (down from 46% last summer). A majority of Americans say the level of ethics and honesty in government has fallen during Trump's term. The declines correlate with the onset of the US-Iran war and its inflationary consequences. Americans remain critical of the Trump administration's approach to Iran.
Strategic interpretation
The approval rating decline creates significant headwinds for Republicans in the 2026 midterms, where the party defends slim House and Senate majorities. The erosion is concentrated on issues Trump previously dominated — immigration and military leadership — suggesting the Iran war's economic fallout is undermining his core political strengths. Historically, presidents below 40% approval lose an average of 37 House seats in midterms, which would flip the chamber to Democratic control.