Scott Aaronson warns fault-tolerant quantum computers could break deployed crypto by 2029

Scott Aaronson, UT Austin CS chair and former OpenAI Superalignment researcher, published a blog post titled 'Will you heed my warnings NOW?' stating that his most trusted experts now believe fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of breaking deployed cryptosystems could arrive by around 2029. Cloudflare has accelerated its post-quantum cryptography roadmap to 2029 in response. Google, Quantinuum, and QuEra have recently achieved qubit fidelity surpassing fault-tolerance thresholds. When the world's most visible quantum computing skeptic compresses his timeline from 'decades away' to 'three years,' it signals an inflection point for the security industry.