ASEAN Summit Opens in Cebu Amid Oil Crisis, South China Sea Tensions
Primary region Asia
Tags Diplomacy · Energy
Regions Asia
The 48th ASEAN Leaders' Summit opened in Cebu, Philippines on May 5 under a scaled-down 'barebones' format due to the global oil crisis from the Iran war. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency and said the summit would focus on oil supply, food prices, and welfare of ASEAN migrant workers in the Middle East. The summit includes ongoing negotiations with China on a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea and discussions on the Myanmar crisis. An ASEAN-EU Sustainability Summit on May 7 brought over 200 participants to address energy transition and green finance.
Strategic interpretation
The scaled-down format reflects how the Iran war's economic fallout is consuming bandwidth that would otherwise go to strategic competition issues like the South China Sea. ASEAN's dependence on Middle East energy supply chains makes it a secondary casualty of the conflict. The COC negotiations with China will continue but without the political space for a breakthrough, as ASEAN leaders prioritize economic stabilization.