Sudan braces for major Kordofan battle as war enters fourth year with 14 million displaced
Primary region Africa
Tags Security
Regions Africa
As Sudan's war entered its fourth year on April 15, 2026, both the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces are deploying large-scale reinforcements across the Kordofan region in preparation for a potentially decisive battle. The conflict has killed over 100,000 people and displaced 14 million, roughly a quarter of Sudan's population. The country is partitioned: SAF controls northern, central, and eastern states; RSF controls Darfur and large parts of three Kordofan states. A breakaway RSF commander, Major General Al-Nour Al-Qubba, defected and his forces were deployed south of Khartoum by the army in late April. The Quad mediation group has stalled, with both belligerents refusing to halt hostilities. Over 500 civilians were killed in drone strikes by both sides in early 2026 alone.
Strategic interpretation
The Kordofan battle could determine whether the SAF can reverse RSF territorial gains or whether the partition becomes permanent. The defection of General Al-Qubba represents the first significant crack in RSF command structure and may encourage further fractures, but it remains unclear whether his forces can alter the battlefield balance effectively. The stalled Quad mediation reflects the conflicting interests of its members: Egypt backs the SAF, the UAE has been accused of arming the RSF, and Saudi Arabia and the US lack the leverage or political will to impose a ceasefire. The 14 million displaced represent the world's worst displacement crisis, yet international attention remains focused on Ukraine and Gaza, limiting diplomatic pressure for resolution.