New York Times/Siena Poll Finds Talarico and Paxton Tied in Texas U.S. Senate Race
Primary region US
Tags Elections
Regions US
A June 2026 New York Times/Siena College poll shows Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton tied with Democratic State Representative James Talarico in the race for Texas's open U.S. Senate seat. The finding represents a major shift for a state where Democrats have not won a statewide federal race in decades. Hispanic voter movement toward the Democratic candidate and Paxton's history of legal troubles are cited as key factors. Sen. John Cornyn's seat is open after he announced his retirement.
Strategic interpretation
A competitive Texas Senate race complicates Democratic resource allocation, forcing the party to spend defensively in a state previously considered safe Republican ground. A Talarico victory would signal accelerating Hispanic voter realignment in the Sun Belt and substantially alter the 2028 national electoral landscape.