Gaza Ceasefire at Breaking Point as Israel Threatens War Resumption Over Hamas Disarmament
Primary region Middle East
Tags Security · Diplomacy · Justice
Regions Middle East
Israel is threatening to resume full-scale war on Gaza to force Hamas's disarmament, while Hamas refuses to discuss weapons surrender until Israel fully implements the first phase of the October 2025 ceasefire agreement. The IDF reported 19 ceasefire violations between April 21 and May 5. Hamas retains thousands of rockets, anti-tank missiles, and tens of thousands of assault rifles. Palestinian factions rejected US-backed plans linking humanitarian aid to weapons surrender. As of April 2026, just 0.5% of Gaza rubble has been cleared and the vast majority of donor reconstruction funding has not been transferred. Israel has conducted no further withdrawals since the initial pullback on October 10, 2025.
Strategic interpretation
The ceasefire is approaching a binary outcome: either Israel resumes major combat operations to disarm Hamas, or both sides accept an indefinite frozen conflict with Hamas retaining military capacity. The US closure of the Civil-Military Coordination Centre in Israel signals declining American confidence in the peace process. Reconstruction funding remains largely unfulfilled, creating conditions for humanitarian deterioration that could trigger a new crisis regardless of the military situation.