Germany's Merz Marks One Year in Office with Coalition in Crisis and AfD Leading Polls at 26%
Primary region Europe
Tags Elections · Economy
Regions Europe
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-SPD coalition faces collapse-level tensions over tax, welfare, and pension reforms one year into his chancellorship. The far-right AfD leads national polls at 26.2%, with the CDU at 24.6% and the SPD at 13.4%. Merz's approval rating has hit historic lows at 19%. The coalition has a narrow 12-seat parliamentary majority. SPD Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil declared 'there will be no further changes' to pension law, directly contradicting Merz's push for reform. Germany returned to growth at end of 2025 after two years of recession, but the recovery is threatened by energy shocks from the Iran war and new US tariffs on carmakers.
Strategic interpretation
Germany's political instability has significant implications for European defense spending, EU leadership, and the continent's response to the Iran war energy shock. The AfD's continued rise — now the largest party in polls — constrains Merz's ability to pursue centrist reforms and may push the CDU toward harder-line positions on immigration and fiscal policy. The coalition's narrow majority makes it vulnerable to defections, and state elections in Saxony-Anhalt in September could give the AfD its first state government, fundamentally altering German politics.