Mozambique's Cabo Delgado Insurgency Persists as Rwanda Warns of Troop Withdrawal
Primary region Africa
Tags Security
Regions Africa
The ISIS-linked insurgency in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province continues in its ninth year, with over 6,200 deaths and more than 1.1 million displaced. SAMIM withdrew in 2024 under funding pressures, and Rwanda has warned it may follow if EU financing is not renewed in May 2026. At least 300,000 people have been displaced since July 2025 alone. ISIS-Mozambique has adapted tactics, moving into southern districts previously unaffected, and in January 2026 took over Mucojo along the Macomia coast. Around 30 attacks were recorded in September 2025, resulting in at least 40 deaths (39 civilians).
Strategic interpretation
Rwanda's potential withdrawal from Cabo Delgado would create a significant security vacuum in a region with major LNG investments worth billions of dollars. The insurgency's geographic expansion into southern districts suggests ISIS-Mozambique is adapting to military pressure in its traditional strongholds. The EU's funding decision in May will be critical — without international support, Mozambique's military capacity to contain the insurgency is severely limited, with implications for regional stability and global energy markets.