Russia suffers net territorial loss in Ukraine for first time since August 2024
Primary region Europe
Tags Diplomacy
Regions Europe
Russian forces in April 2026 suffered a net loss of territory in the Ukrainian theater for the first time since Ukraine's August 2024 incursion into Kursk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War. ISW assessed that Russian forces lost control of 116 square kilometers in April 2026. The rate of Russian advance has steadily declined since November 2025, with Russian forces seizing an average of 2.9 square kilometers per day in the first four months of 2026 compared to 9.76 in the same period of 2025. Over the most recent four-week period (March 31-April 28), Russia suffered a net loss of 26 square miles. The slowdown is attributed to Ukrainian ground counterattacks, mid-range strikes, the February 2026 block on Russia's use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, and seasonal spring mud patterns. Russia continues to strike civilian targets, with drone attacks on Odesa injuring 20 and a strike on Kherson killing two on May 2.
Strategic interpretation
The territorial reversal weakens Russia's bargaining position in any potential ceasefire negotiations and raises questions about the sustainability of its attritional strategy. A slowing Russian advance gives Ukraine's diplomatic allies more leverage to push for negotiations from a position of relative strength. However, Russia's continued drone campaigns against civilian infrastructure signal an attempt to degrade Ukrainian morale and economic capacity even as ground operations stall.