Trump Approval Rating Falls to Record Lows as Iran War and Economic Anxiety Weigh on GOP Midterm Prospects
Primary region US
Tags Elections · Economy · Policy
Regions US
Multiple polls released in early May 2026 show President Trump's approval rating at record lows, with an NPR/PBS/Marist poll recording 37% approval versus 59% disapproval and aggregator averages placing him at roughly 38-40% approve versus 57-58% disapprove. An AP-NORC poll found Trump's economic approval dropped to 30% in April from 38% in March, with only about one-quarter of US adults approving of his handling of the cost of living. Republican voter enthusiasm for the midterms has collapsed: only 52% of Republicans say the upcoming election is more important than past midterms, compared to 72% in September 2022. By contrast, 73% of Democrats say the election is more important than past midterms, creating a significant enthusiasm gap. The consumer price index climbed 3.3% year-over-year in March, and about three-quarters of US adults now describe the economy as poor.
Strategic interpretation
The enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters is historically one of the strongest predictors of midterm outcomes, and the current 21-point gap (73% vs 52%) dwarfs the margins seen in previous cycles. Even with Republicans' structural redistricting advantage, the national political environment favors significant Democratic gains in November. The Iran war's impact on gas prices and inflation appears to be the primary driver of economic disapproval, meaning progress on a ceasefire could shift these numbers, though the effect may come too late to alter the political trajectory.