India state elections head to May 4 counting in pivotal test for Modi's BJP
Primary region Asia
Tags Elections
Regions Asia
Vote counting for India's 2026 state legislative assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry is set for May 4, with results expected by evening. The elections are a crucial political test for PM Modi's BJP, which lost its national parliamentary majority in June 2024. West Bengal is the most closely watched contest, with exit polls suggesting a neck-and-neck battle between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and BJP, with the possibility of a hung assembly. Tamil Nadu recorded over 80% voter turnout with 4,023 candidates contesting across 234 constituencies. Key issues include electoral roll revision (SIR), identity politics, welfare schemes, and employment. Results will reshape the balance of power in Parliament's upper chamber and set the landscape ahead of national elections in 2029. The BJP needs strong performances to demonstrate its Hindu nationalist expansion strategy remains viable after its 2024 setback.
Strategic interpretation
A BJP underperformance in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu would confirm the party's geographic limitations and strengthen regional parties' bargaining power in national coalition politics. Strong BJP gains would signal Modi's continued dominance despite the 2024 parliamentary setback and set the stage for a commanding 2029 campaign. The electoral roll revision controversy has become a flashpoint for concerns about democratic integrity.