ASEAN Summit in Cebu Sees 'Nano-Shift' on Myanmar, Pushes South China Sea Code of Conduct
Primary region Asia
Tags Diplomacy · Security
Regions Asia · China
The 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, Philippines saw leaders express frustration over zero progress on Myanmar's crisis, with Thailand proposing political-level engagement with the junta but Malaysia opposing it. President Marcos described discussions as 'very vibrant' and at times 'emotional,' acknowledging only a 'nano-shift' in approach. On the South China Sea, ASEAN adopted a maritime cooperation declaration and pledged to 'endeavor to conclude' a binding Code of Conduct with China, with technical working groups meeting monthly targeting completion in 2026. Malaysia maintained that South China Sea negotiations should be resolved among ASEAN and China without external interference.
Strategic interpretation
ASEAN's 'nano-shift' on Myanmar reflects the bloc's fundamental dilemma: engagement risks legitimizing the junta, while isolation has produced no results. The push to conclude the South China Sea Code of Conduct in 2026 is ambitious given 17 years of negotiations, but China's willingness to engage may signal a desire to reduce regional tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Malaysia's insistence on excluding external powers from South China Sea talks directly challenges the US 'free and open Indo-Pacific' framing.