UK heads to historic May 7 elections with Labour facing unprecedented losses and five-party politics
Primary region Europe
Tags Elections
Regions Europe
On May 7, 2026, elections will be held for over 5,000 English local council seats, the Scottish Parliament (129 seats), and the Welsh Senedd (96 seats under a new proportional system). Labour is on track for its worst-ever local election performance, with polls showing vote share falling by more than half in Wales. In Wales, Labour faces being pushed into third place behind Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. Reform UK and the Green Party are rising sharply in polls; Greens won the Gorton and Denton by-election with Labour falling to third. The elections are the second set during PM Keir Starmer's premiership, amid scandals including Peter Mandelson's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Five-party politics means many councils will end up with no overall control, requiring coalition deals. Former YouGov president Peter Kellner calls these 'the most significant elections of this Westminster parliament.' The Scottish Parliament election will test the SNP's dominance and the strength of Scottish independence sentiment.
Strategic interpretation
Labour's poor performance would embolden internal critics of Starmer's leadership and raise questions about the party's ability to hold its 2024 coalition together. Reform UK's rise signals a realignment of British politics along populist-conservative lines, potentially splitting the right-wing vote but also pulling the Conservatives further right. The Welsh result could accelerate demands for a Welsh independence referendum. The Scottish Parliament election will determine whether the SNP can maintain its dominance or if Labour recovers ground north of the border.